Archive for the ‘Science & Technology’ Category

Images from Venus

Thursday, December 18th, 2008

There’s really only one place in the Solar System where the success of Soviet space exploration eclipsed that of NASA: Venus. Nobody else has yet landed an operational probe there on purpose (one NASA atmospheric probe punched all the way to the surface and returned data, but it wasn’t equipped to take advantage of such luck). The Soviets, meanwhile, returned data from not less than four landers.

Don Mitchell has applied modern image processing techniques to create a collection of processed images from these missions. It’s great work! You can get a feeling for the inhospitable surface. Here’s a composite panorama view:

Panorama view of Venus from images transmitted by Venera 13

Nice day for a stroll, if you like 700 K temperatures and enjoy picking out the cute animal shapes in sulfur clouds! Inhospitable as the surface is, Venus is easily overlooked as a destination for manned exploration. However, as Geoffrey Landis has pointed out, if you go a few tens of kilometers up in the sky, it’s actually a very promising place.

If Mike Griffin had been Columbus

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

I reserve any opinion on NASA head Mike Griffin. I’m linking this satire because I find it amusing, but I take no position on its merits. Still, it’s a diverting read.

Solar Weevils in Earth’s Magnetic Field

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

The ill-understood area of solar-planetary physics got a new twist recently, as an the solar wind punched an unexpected hole in Earth’s magnetic field.

Shapes of Saturn

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

Wherever you go in life, everything has a natural shape: tides, girls, history, oak leaves, and even planetary atmospheres. Sometimes we’re surprised and elated to see them clearly. Observers working on NASA’s Cassini mission to Saturn and Titan had exactly that reaction when the found a polygon over Saturn’s north pole.

Hexegonal atmospheric pattern over Saturn

Contrary to NASA’s article, however, patterns like this aren’t unheard of on Earth. Indeed, a similar, somewhat stable, dynamic pattern in atmospheric flow can be observed around the 500 millibar pressure-height for at least a few weeks most years.

Let’s take northern-hemisphere winter as an example. The overall motion of the atmosphere north of the tropics is west-to-east, that is, the Earth rotates counter-clockwise from the point of view of a satellite looking down over the north pole, and the atmosphere in this region rotates even faster than the ground. So, weather systems approach from the west and depart to the east. The paths taken by these weather systems are usually dictated by changes in the longwave pattern of the atmosphere, observable around the 500-millibar pressure-height. Shortwaves that generate weather move along the boundaries of a longwave pattern that spans the globe. These longwaves are called Rossby waves. You can get a feeling for how they work by looking at a plot of 500-mb heights like this.

Example of planetary Rossby waves, from the University of Michigan.

If you look closely, you can see something not unlike a distorted pentagon forming in the image. The polygon of pressure heights in Earth’s atmosphere is much less stable and more distorted than that on Saturn, because Earth’s atmosphere is relatively thin, and the surface has wildly non-uniform thermal properties. So differences in cloud cover and how well the surface absorbs sunlight in neighboring regions keeps us from seeing nice, pretty shapes that last a long time.

On Earth, the number of nodes (i.e., number of sides to the “polygon”) in a pattern of atmospheric waves like this (called Rossby waves) changes regularly, and the rotation of the polygon about the pole depends on the number of nodes, k. In the above example, k=5. If k is large, waves propagate upstream slower than the atmosphere moves downstream, so they move west to east over the surface. If k is small, the individual waves are longer, and propagate upstream faster relative to the atmospheric motion. In that case, they can seem not to move relative to the surface, or even move east-to-west. There’s usually some possible k for which the nodal pattern in the atmosphere, as observed from the surface or from a geostationary satellite, seems stable.

Why go through all this? Well, first of all, according to current understanding, Rossby waves form in the atmosphere because of the changes in the Coriolis effect with latitude. As particles go north, the surface of the planet gets closer to the spin axis, so they have to speed up toward the east in order to conserve angular momentum, and that process eventually generates these wave patterns. Observations like this from Saturn, then, can tell us something about the horizontal motion of particles lower in its atmosphere. Secondly, these phenomena aren’t unique to planetary atmospheres. Fluid patterns eerily similar to those imaged on Saturn have been observed in the laboratory (thanks to user “hendric” over at Unmanned Spaceflight for pointing this out). Intriguingly, these laboratory observations cannot be explained by the Coriolis effect, because they are on far too small a scale for changes in latitude to matter. Whatever is happening on Saturn’s north pole is clearly related to what happens on Earth’s north pole, but it may also yield insight into forces and phenomena of fluid dynamics, not yet well understood, that can affect atmospheric behavior. It’s all very complicated and speculative and wicked awesome.

Dual sunspots and solar weather observation

Friday, October 17th, 2008

For the first time in many months, Sol presently features more than one sunspot. As the Sun (belatedly) pulls out of an extended lapse in sunspot activity, it becomes increasingly unlikely that we’re in for anything like the Maunder Minimum, a 17th century dip in sunspot numbers correlated (which proves nothing about causation!) with the Little Ice Age. It was always a matter of piling long-shot atop long-shot to suppose that such a change in solar behavior was a) under way, and b) likely to affect climate dramatically. However, with man-made climate change pointed the other way, a small reduction in solar irradiance would have been a welcome development.

It now looks like the solar cycle is back on track, but that doesn’t mean nothing interesting is happening. The spacecraft Ulysses–18 years old and on the verge of failure even as it transmits important data–reports solar wind levels are the lowest ever recorded. Meanwhile, I’ve heard an unconfirmed report that Earth’s magnetic field, slowly declining for years, has jumped significantly during the current solar minimum. As far as I know, nobody has even proposed an explanation for either of these developments.

We know very little about the Sun or the energy transfer dynamics of the Solar System. Thanks to the increasing political importance of climate-change research, that is finally slated to change. Ulysses was a great spacecraft, but it is ready to be replaced by a new generation of solar observation satellites. Among these is SORCE, the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment, launched in 2003. If you’re interested in modern satellite design and instrumentation, I strongly encourage you to check out that link. This is a well conceived and designed set of sensors, with a website far more detailed and informative than we are usually treated to. I eagerly await reliable information about long-term trends in total solar irradiance and spectroscopy.

UPDATE: One important measurement that cannot be made by satellites in low Earth orbit is solar wind velocity. We can’t reliably measure this from near Earth, because of interference from the Earth’s magnetic field. The logical successor of Ulysses in making observations that require some distance from Earth is SOHO, which has something of a storied history, located about 1.5 gigameters toward the Sun. SOHO has one instrument, SWAN, which should be able to estimate the mass flux of the solar wind. It operates by detecting the surface of intersection between the solar wind and electrically neutral particles from interstellar space. Given the availability of SWAN, I’m a little perplexed as to why NASA and others are referring to Ulysses’ solar wind observations rather than SOHO’s. Is something wrong, either technically or theoretically, with SWAN? If so, with the imminent death of Ulysses, we may lose the ability to monitor solar wind even as variations are being observed that may not repeat themselves for years or centuries. At least, off the top of my head, I don’t know of another current mission that can observe the solar wind.

Making Earth more like Venus

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

I think greenhouse warming is a serious problem to be addressed over the coming years. Nonetheless, some of the proclamations of environmentalists, and even scientists, make me want to throw things at a TV screen, monitor, or journal (though this last option lacks the satisfying smash of the others). Among the worst offenders in this category is the use of hellish surface conditions on Venus as a worst-case-scenario, allegedly demonstrating what can happen when greenhouse gasses get out of control. In honor of these alarmists, here are a few of the ways we could make Earth a little more like Venus:

  • Add CO2 to the atmosphere (this is the one they mean). Maybe everyone could breath out at the same time?
  • Move Earth 40,000,000-odd km toward the Sun. I think this could be done by getting everyone to stand on the light side of the world and throw rocks over the horizon. Later, the rocks would land, and everyone would go home, but the net effect would be to briefly increase the tidal force of the Sun upon the Earth (since the total mass would be spread out more along a vector from the Earth to the Sun), slowing the planet’s rotation and increasing the radius of its orbit, in accord with the conservation of angular momentum. The resulting cooler conditions would make everyone come in from the beach and work on science, so we could invent technology to move Earth 40,000,000-odd km toward the Sun.
  • Destroy all life. (They think they mean this, too.)
  • Increase the pressure of the atmosphere by about 9300%. Maybe we could all blow out really hard
The last point is most important. As seen in the ideal gas law, PV=nRT, drastically increasing the pressure without changing the volume, number of moles, or gas constant by much, is guaranteed to raise temperature. Venus’ ~700 K surface temperatures are more because of the atmospheric pressure than because of CO2’s greenhouse footprint. In fact, CO2 is a far less potent greenhouse gas than water vapor, of which Venus has very little. If you changed the composition of Venus’ atmosphere to that of Earth, keeping the same pressure and solar constant, the temperature would probably rise even further.

Besides this, the idea of a “runaway greenhouse effect” on Earth is quite unsupportable. During past interglacial periods, Earth has had higher temperatures and CO2 concentrations than even the most aggressive climate models are predicting for the next century. If such a tipping point existed in Earth’s radiation balance, we would already have tipped. Yes, the notion that some such tipping point could exist makes theoretical sense. No, we’re not anywhere near such a point.

Repeat after me, BBC, CNN, and scientists who’re trying way too hard to bring Americans around on climate change: Earth and Venus ARE NOT COMPARABLE! There are good reasons to bring greenhouse emissions under control. Fear of Earth becoming a completely uninhabitable wasteland is not one of them.

Opportunity’s Long Haul

Friday, September 19th, 2008

The latest edition to the blogroll is the excellent Planetary Society blog, which currently features in depth discussion of MER rover Opportunity’s ambitious 12-km trek to it’s next target of study, the crater Endeavour. I think there are two sound reasons to embark on such a mission. First, setting a long-term research goal (just getting to Endeavour might take a year) makes it harder for NASA administrators to kill funding for continued operations of the rovers, which, for reasons that perplex me, they otherwise might well do. Second, Endeavour is far away from territory previously covered by MER rovers, both geometrically and geologically. When using tiny robots to chart vast terrain, I think it’s best to keep moving, investigating as wide a variety of sites as possible. The rovers are partly designed to study scientific issues identified well in advance, like my work on dust devils, but the overriding goal of space exploration is to be in a position to observe the unexpected, the unimagined. Sending Opportunity on a potentially dangerous, but bold trip like this gives us an even better chance of stumbling upon something new. Kudos to Dr. Squyres and the MER team for this decision!

A New Tropical Storm

Monday, August 25th, 2008

The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on tropical depression seven at 11am EDT this morning. What is interesting is that this depression–with 30 KT maximum winds–already has an eye feature (I’ve saved the image, but haven’t been able to upload it to the server for some reason, so the image you’ll see later today isn’t the same one I’m looking at now). Granted, IR imagery shows the eye isn’t clear at all levels, isn’t centered in the deep convection, and isn’t quite vertically stacked. Still, given its satellite presentation, I’d be very shocked if this new depression doesn’t already have tropical storm force winds. I think it is quite likely to become a hurricane in the next day.

The NHC forecasters are as aware of this as I am, of course, they’re just following the doctrine of preserving continuity with earlier forecasts. Going directly from an area of disturbed weather to a strong tropical storm would be a jarring transition, and the forecaster in charge would be sticking his neck out a bit. I think this situation shows the weakness of the continuity doctrine, though, especially when forecasting dangerous weather conditions. Shipping interests and citizens of the Caribbean would be better served by an accurate forecast than a smoothly changing one. Weather conditions sometimes change suddenly, and we should be prepared to adjust diagnoses and forecasts suddenly in response.

A neat illustration of a tesseract (from Wikipedia commons)

Monday, August 18th, 2008

A neat illustration of a tesseract

This might be the fundamental unit of time.

The Voice of the Sun

Thursday, April 24th, 2008

Astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded this 21 MHZ signal during a small solar flare in late March. Beats your average new-agey found-sound ambiance!

Along the same lines, Cassini has recorded the radio output of an electrical storm on Saturn.